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    深圳亚博体育咨询有限公司_百度百科

    日期:2023-01-29 21:03
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    摘要:受俄乌冲突事件影响,国内外镍价持续走强。作为不锈钢的重要原料,不锈钢价格也出现大幅上涨。财联社记者实地走访多家不锈钢贸易商及加工商,受访者均表示年后不锈钢价格出现大幅波动,对下游需求造成较大影响,部分终端用户可能考虑替代品或推迟用料计划。 镍价突然大幅上涨,也抬高了不锈钢生产和流通企业的成本。分析人士指出,按照当前的镍价,不锈钢生产企业生产成本已出现倒挂。

               需求劝退、成本倒挂 “妖镍”暴涨西安不锈钢管市场“受不了”


    受俄乌冲突事件影响,国内外镍价持续走强。作为不锈钢的重要原料,不锈钢价格也出现大幅上涨。财联社记者实地走访多家不锈钢贸易商及加工商,受访者均表示年后不锈钢价格出现大幅波动,对下游需求造成较大影响,部分终端用户可能考虑替代品或推迟用料计划。

    镍价突然大幅上涨,也抬高了不锈钢生产和流通企业的成本。分析人士指出,按照当前的镍价,不锈钢生产企业生产成本已出现倒挂。  

    高价不锈钢吓退市场需求  

    节后不锈钢价格出现波动,主要由于俄乌冲突及西方制裁导致市场担忧俄镍缺席引发国外镍价大幅上涨。昨日LME期镍更是创出历史高价,高为55000美元/吨,高涨幅超90%。  

    进口镍与国产镍价差大幅扩大,带动国内价格跟涨。受强势镍价带动,不锈钢价格也出现大幅上涨。  

    东吴期货行业分析师王志强告诉财联社记者:“镍和不锈钢的价格暴涨,一方面是市场对俄乌冲突的后续影响逐步显现,另一方面是LME镍库存处于低位,而俄镍不能交割,外盘期货市场出现逼仓。”  

    财联社记者实地走访了佛山和石家庄两个不锈钢市场,发现由于价格暴涨下游市场需求也开始受到影响。    
    对于客户较少的原因,户经理认为:“一方面是因为今年开工较晚,一方面是因为价格实在太高,客户不好接受了,预算费用就那么多,这个价格买不齐料。”  近两年不锈钢市场中下游的贸易企业和加工企业也较少进行冬储,过低的社会库存,也导致市场价格传导十分迅速。石家庄某不锈钢加工企业朱经理对财联社记者表示:“现在很少有商户进行冬储了,都是用多少备料多少,仓库存量很少。不锈钢市场现在价格波动很快,可能价格就能变化好几次。”  

    佛山某不锈钢市场商户昨日称:“304不锈钢现在价格都到2万了,相比年前每吨上涨了百分之十几。”但与北方市场不同,当地不锈钢下游客户有较多机械企业,产品交付周期压力下,企业顶着高价也要按期生产交货。  

    某机械加工企业采购部人士告诉财联社记者:“去年公司就因为304不锈钢和高碳钢价格上涨,盈利减少了上千万,今年公司开展了期货套保,也算亡羊补牢,但是这个价格还是感觉太高了。”  

    过高的价格一方面导致下游企业推迟进料计划,也有部分项目可能采购低配产品进行替代。朱经理对财联社记者表示:“有的客户可能因为价格太高,推迟采购。也有项目不能拖太久,客户可能因为304价格太高了,转而采购201进行替代。”  

    不锈钢生产企业成本再度倒挂  

    镍在不锈钢生产中占成本比重较高,304不锈钢吨钢需用80-110KG的镍,201不锈钢也需用到35-55KG镍,因此镍价的波动对不锈钢钢企的影响巨大。而国内多数钢企多数没有自有镍矿,也只有少量钢企采用套保对上游镍价和不锈钢销售价格进行锁定,整体来看,钢企利润受镍价成本影响波动幅度较大,由于镍价暴涨,若按照当前镍价采购,不锈钢企业生产成本将严重倒挂。  

    王志强告诉财联社记者:“上周镍价上涨时候,不锈钢反应较慢,钢企已出现了一次小幅亏损,之后又有好转,但如果参考今日的镍价,不锈钢生产成本将严重倒挂。”  

    财联社记者以投资者身份致电国内多家不锈钢生产企业,酒钢宏兴(600307.SH)公司人士表示:“公司的铁矿石自供比例较高,但是公司没有镍矿资源,镍铁需要外采,大部分来自金川,公司和上游供货企业应该有长协。”  

    太钢不锈(000825.SZ)公司人士称:“集团在缅甸有少量镍矿,但是量较少,公司主要原料仍以外部采购为主。不锈钢价格变化较大,而公司的销售价格以随行就市为主。”  

    按照当前的镍价,不锈钢生产企业生产成本已出现倒挂,未来一段时间镍价仍是不锈钢市场关注的核心。


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